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⚾ Bump — Scoring Methodology

How pitcher danger scores and hitter scores are calculated

What is Bump?

Bump scans the daily MLB slate and scores each starting pitcher based on ERA, WHIP, and recent form. The core insight is simple: a bad pitcher is a good betting opportunity. By scoring pitchers on a 0–100 danger scale and surfacing the best opposing hitters, Bump helps identify high-danger pitching matchups where the edge comes from a hittable starter.

Pitcher Danger Score— How hittable is today's starter? (0 = dominant, 100 = very hittable)

Hitter Score — How good is this batter against this type of pitcher? (0 = weak, 100 = excellent)

Pitcher Danger Score

Input Statistics

  • ERA (Earned Run Average) — Earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched
  • WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning) — Base runners allowed per inning. Lower is better for the pitcher
  • BAA (Batting Average Against) — How often opposing batters get hits off this pitcher

Normalization (0–100 scale)

ERA danger = (ERA / 10) × 100 [clamped 0–100]WHIP danger = (WHIP / 3) × 100 [clamped 0–100]BAA danger = (BAA - 0.15) / 0.20 × 100 [clamped 0–100]

Season Score

seasonScore = (ERA danger + WHIP danger + BAA danger) / 3

Recent Form Score

Averages ERA and WHIP danger across the pitcher's last 5 starts. BAA is not available in game log data.

recentFormScore = (avgERA danger last 5 + avgWHIP danger last 5) / 2

Combined Danger Score (Final)

dangerScore = (recentFormScore × 0.60) + (seasonScore × 0.40)

Recent form is weighted 60% because a pitcher's last few outings are more predictive than their full season line.

Danger Badge Thresholds

ScoreBadgeMeaning
> 65High danger — very hittable, strong bet candidate
40–65Moderate — worth watching, context dependent
< 40Strong pitcher — avoid
AnyNo 2026 starts yet — score based on 2025 season stats

Hitter Score

The Hitter Score rates each batter 0–100 based on their likelihood of reaching base and producing extra bases — the two outcomes most relevant to total bases prop bets.

Formula

hitterScore = (OBP × 0.50) + (SLG × 0.30) + (AVG × 0.20)

Stat Weights

  • OBP — 50% weight — Getting on base is the primary outcome for most props
  • SLG — 30% weight — Extra base hits = total bases = prop value
  • AVG — 20% weight — Supporting signal for consistent contact quality

Normalization Ranges

OBP: .250 → 0 to .450 → 100SLG: .300 → 0 to .600 → 100AVG: .200 → 0 to .350 → 100

How to Use Bump

  1. Scan the slate — Find games with red danger badges (score > 65). These are your primary targets.
  2. Click the pitcher — Review season vs recent form. Is the high score driven by recent bad starts or a season-long pattern?
  3. View Batters — Open the modal and look at the top-scored hitters against this starter.
  4. Click a batter — See their full stat breakdown and score components.
  5. Build your bets — Target the opposing team's moneyline, the game total, or individual batter props. Combine your best spots into a parlay or round robin for bigger upside.

Timing

MLB lineups are typically posted 3–4 hours before first pitch (around 3–4pm ET). Bump is most useful after lineups are confirmed. Probable pitchers are usually set the night before.

Limitations

  • Early season small samples — In April, danger scores are based on very few starts. A grey badge means no 2026 data yet — score uses 2025 stats.
  • No splits — The tool does not account for left/right pitcher-batter matchups.
  • No injury data — Always check lineup status before betting.
  • No ballpark factors — Coors Field and other hitter-friendly parks inflate all offensive stats.